The Threat from Empty al-Qaida Training Camps

Email transcript posted with permission from Carly and MOGS.  My comments added today.

Carly:  So.... I'm wondering if the recent emptying of AQ training camps in Pakistan (along with the reported "chatter" and threats by that nebbishy American AQ dude, etc) suggests I should be more "vigilant" than I normally am in NYC...? Are those training camp dudes expecting something "incoming" because of Pakistan related facts---or are they planning something that would demand a response against their locations?

MOGS:  Well, I can't either confirm or deny that camps have been emptied, but my gut tells me they may be running scared a little bit - that's my opinion, but not having been in the AOR for (too) long now, I couldn't tell you one way or the other.

Pigeon:  I did some digging and came up with this source at freerepublic.com: 

Excerpt: The al Qaeda and Taliban personnel abandoned the 28 camps after “the US had presented Islamabad with a dossier detailing the location of the bases as advance information on likely US targets,” Mr. Shahzad reported. “All other leading Taliban commanders, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, Gul Bahadur, Baitullah Mehsud and Haji Omar, have disappeared,” said Mr. Shahzad.

“Similarly, the top echelons of the Arab community that was holed up in North Waziristan has also gone.” Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies are believed to have leaked information to the Taliban and al Qaeda in the past, and appears to have done so again.

The emptying of the camps is a cause for great concern in the military and intelligence communities. “We don’t know where they went to or who was in the camps,” the military officer told The Fourth Rail.. “They are well trained, these aren’t your entry level jihadis. They are dangerous.”

Personally, I hadn't heard of this issue until your email, but admittedly I've been distracted by other research.  That said, it took me a while to find this information, which makes me wonder why I haven't seen it above the fold anywhere else?

But given this single source, I have another assessment:  If I were an al Qaida leader and I learned the US  just told Musharraf where I was located, I'd pull my tent stakes and move on.  Pakistan is still a safe haven for al Qaida and the Taliban, especially in the rugged North Waziristan region. I certainly won't discount a worst case scenario (gotta watch all angles), but I think they just relocated.

Carly:  From what I've read those camps emptied out a week or 2 before 9/11--and before the Cole attacks.....  I ruminate also on the reasons why it is "we know how many camps there are and where they are (were)"--yet have done nothing to obliterate them (precarious political landscape in Pak, yeah, I know)--and supposedly "don't know where they've gone" now that they've split---and don't know why they've split.... Something odd about all this...

MOGS:  well, remember this - most of our successes in the GWOT, you won't hear about until several years down the line, if ever.

Pigeon:  Another reason I'm not ready to totally discount the most dangerous avenue of approach.  However, I also concur with MOGS only our failures make the press, unfortunately.

Carly:  which makes me think (hope?) it's manufactured/massaged info being disseminated for some reason that will benefit "us"....  I mean, we must have our own folks who've infiltrated these groups, no??

MOGS:  In all seriousness, couldn't tell ya one way or the other.

Pigeon:  I wouldn't doubt it, but such information is above my pay grade.

Carly:  Inquiring minds want to know what yall think..... What do I make of all this...... information....disinformation.... manipulation..... a race to stop something/someone(s)..... ???

MOGS:  Sun Tzu - "Warfare is one thing:  It is a philosophy of deception"

Deception doesn't necessarily mean "lying" in fact, rarely, if ever, does it include bold-face lying.

Furthermore, the way to disrupt, prevent, or take control of an enemy's decision process, is to "infect" his observe-orient-decide-act construct with as much bad information, late information, unnecessary information, disinformation, as possible to make it impossible for him to decide, act appropriately, or at least react in time to stop you from what you're  planning on doing to him.

All I'll say is this:  there are three levels to war, the moral, the mental, and the physical.  The most important of these three is the moral.

Pigeon:  It could be a case of disinformation from within.  Take me for example:  I'm making an assessment from a single source, which is dangerous.  I'm more worried some pundit got their hands on a scrap of information and now thinks the sky is falling.  It may be, but I need more data.

Carly:  Not that I'm actively worried--or that I'd change my life/activities the slightest bit.... but yeah, I think about this stuff (how could I not?)....

MOGS:  I wouldn't worry, but at the same time, perhaps use this as an opportunity to practice enhancing your day-to-day "situational awareness" (like when the manhole cover blew a few weeks ago), also, at the risk of sounding paranoid, I actually have a disaster plan I look over every once in a while (where I plan to go, what the local emergency phone numbers are, what my back-up comm plan is because I don't have landline and expect to loose cell coverage quickly, how to get in touch with my unit and my family, recall procedures. 

No joke, even out here in Happy Valley, I keep a lot of bottled water, a  packed "travel bag", and my car is always at half a tank or higher, one magazine loaded for my Ruger and I know exactly where all that stuff is.

Do I expect to ever practice any of this?  Hell no, but I think the higher mental state of readiness helps "just in case."  Also, it means that I should be of some use should TSHTF.

Pigeon:  Indeed, I have a habit of taking seats in public places that face the door.  I like to see who's coming in and out.

Carly:  Some good ole boys seem to have stopped those "students" from blowing shit up (or doing recon) at Goose Creek, which is--essentially--my next destination, so I'm not thinking a whole lot about "stuff" happening in SC. But I'm continually trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together--Helen Keller style, for the most part---about all the crap these maniacs in our midst could do.

MOGS:  Re: above - what would you do in Goose Creek to seriously ruin everyone's day if it was you?

Now, imagine you're about half as bright, mentally weak (because you buy into a radical cause to begin with), and full of such sublime hatred that suicidal violence actually seems rational (this tends to  know out about 3/4 of the more devastatingly effective plans by default), so pick something loud, damaging, will make the news, but without any worthy long lasting effects, and expect that to be what would happen instead... Just my humble opinion, between us birds...

Carly:  In NYC--where we're continually in the bullseye---I don't think anyone can claim they NEVER think about "what if...."  I HOPE TO GOD people are thinking about "what if" - not the apocalyptic end of the world scenarios, but the mundane, easy to do, damaging things an everyday average (actually, below average) schlub could pull off.

MOGS:  The Sheeple's biggest weakness is lack of SA - something we preach continually in my DB class and especially my FMA class - and in fact, it's the NUMBER ONE TACTICS LESSON I preach at work.  Car, if you (and I know you already do) and a full tenth of NYC just paid attention to the things around you, and had at least an immediate "okay so I would get behind that building over there, out of the street and away from all the glass windows before trying to call anyone" - you'd be in good shape.

1) always know the people around you (at least the 240-300 degree sector you can see including peripheral vision)

2) take note of anybody different or "not right" (tough to do in NY I bet)

3) the terrain - what constitutes cover, what constitutes a likely target, where would I hang out if I was...a sniper for example...)

4) are there any local law enforcement around?

5) in a bar, who looks drunk enough to start a fight, and does he have friends ( a good exercise in SA)

6) and have more than one way to and from work

7) Pigeon:  If you see something you think is out of place, never assume it's someone else's problem.  Report it!

MOGS:  I'm not trying to spook anyone or make you think I'm paranoid (though by now you probably think I'm completely nuts), but, knowing that I have a level of awareness that tends to be a step or three above those in my surroundings make me feel tons better...just in case....

Pigeon:  As a final thought, a major population area will not necessarily be the next bulls eye.  A small attack in a small town in the Midwest would carry the symbolism that a terrorist can infiltrate right into our heartland, and make the news just as well as a mass casualty attack.

This brings up the two major arguments of terrorism, though:  historically someone using terror tactics wanted media attention, and not necessarily a huge body count.  Sticking iron clad to that analysis construct is one reason no one expected someone to drive a plane into a building, let alone coordinate several similar attacks.  al Qaida's proved they want both the cameras rolling and morgues filled from back to front, but I'm not ready to shift entirely to the new  paradigm, because it's still possible:  especially from a group harassed to the point they're reduced to cell-level tactics and not to organizational-level funding and supply.

Frankly, I'm surprised we haven't been successfully attacked, being we're such a big, soft target.  Despite the size or location of attack, I advise planning for the "when," not the "if."

(In other words, Carly packing heat!).

You can read more on this topic over at Carly's roost here.

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Comments

[Rosemary]

I figured out how to add your post to tb. All I have to do is copy not only the tb, but also the line below it. Then I can erase the extra line, and I have the whole number for tb. How cool is that! ;)

This is an awesome post. I doubt if many people follow this, though. That is sad. Out here in California, we are used to doing some of these things due to earthquakes. I always thought it was just me being weirded out, but I cannot go into a place if I cannot have my back to the wall and being able to see everything. It's a good thing to know I'm not the only one. ;)